Recovering a Production That Has Slipped

How to tell a recoverable slip from a scope problem, what to do in the first 30 days, and why leadership needs options instead of a verdict.

Every production slips at some point. The question is what kind of slip it is. Some can be recovered with better execution. Others are scope or capacity problems that no amount of hard work will close. Treating one as the other is how teams end up in crunch with nothing to show for it.

Recoverable slip or scope problem?

Start with bottoms-up estimates from the people doing the work. Not from the schedule, and not from leads guessing on behalf of their teams. Then compare those estimates to the plan.

The math is simple. If the remaining work at current velocity exceeds the time left, it is not an execution problem. It is scope or capacity. Asking people to work harder will not fix it, and it spends the trust you need for the real fix.

On The Last of Us: Part I, we were ten months from internal ship. Everyone felt overscoped, but nobody had data. Once I had scoped the remaining work with every designer, the gap was clear: about six months of overscope.

The first 30 days

The first month of a recovery comes down to three things, in this order.

1:1 scoping with every owner

Sit down with each person who owns a piece of the remaining work and build the estimate with them. This is slow, and it is the only way to get numbers people will stand behind.

A capacity model with scenarios

Put the estimates into a capacity model that shows what the current team can finish by the current date. Then build scenarios around it, so the gap can be discussed in concrete terms.

A weekly accountability rhythm

Standups, regular director reviews, and dashboards everyone can see. The point is not pressure. The point is that nobody should be surprised by where the project is.

Give leadership options, not a verdict

When scope is locked, there are only two levers left: headcount and date. A producer who walks in with a single answer is asking leadership to accept a verdict. A producer who walks in with blended scenarios is giving them a decision to make.

On The Last of Us: Part I, I gave leadership blended headcount and date options. They chose to add headcount and move the date three months. With that plan in place, I predicted design lock ten months out. We hit it within two weeks.

What I would do differently

I would run the scoping conversations sooner. By the time we did them, the stress of an immovable date was already in the air. People give better estimates when they are not defending themselves, and those conversations are easier before the pressure arrives.

If your production feels overscoped and nobody has the data to say by how much, that is the place to start.

More on production recovery for AAA studios and game production consulting for indie studios.